Analysts warn that the shock of the rapid downfall of the Assad regime could cause Putin to display less flexibility in Ukraine, writes The Telegraph.
As the Syrian conflict continues to escalate, with the Assad regime losing control over key territories and facing mounting pressure from both domestic and international forces, analysts are now looking at the potential impact on Russia’s foreign policy, particularly in regards to Ukraine.
The Russian government has been a staunch supporter of the Assad regime since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, providing military and political support in the form of weapons, economic aid, and diplomatic backing. This support has not only solidified Russia’s presence in the Middle East, but has also served as a counterbalance to the influence of Western powers in the region.
However, as the situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, analysts are now questioning whether Russia’s unwavering support for Assad could backfire and have consequences for its foreign policy in other regions, specifically in Ukraine.
According to a recent article published by The Telegraph, analysts warn that the shock of a potential rapid downfall of the Assad regime could cause Putin to become less flexible in his approach towards Ukraine. This is due to the fact that Russia’s involvement in Syria has become a key component of Putin’s foreign policy and any perceived failure in Syria could be seen as a loss of credibility and influence for Russia on the global stage.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has been a major point of contention between Russia and the West, with Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine leading to sanctions and international isolation. However, in recent months, there have been signs of a potential thaw in relations, with talks between Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany resulting in a ceasefire agreement and the exchange of prisoners.
But if the Assad regime were to collapse, analysts fear that Putin may become more aggressive and less willing to negotiate in order to compensate for any potential loss of influence in the Middle East. This could result in a more confrontational stance towards Ukraine and a potential escalation of the conflict.
Furthermore, analysts also point out that the collapse of the Assad regime could result in a power vacuum in Syria, which could lead to the rise of extremist groups, such as ISIS, and pose a direct threat to Russia’s national security. This would further reinforce Putin’s commitment to supporting Assad and could potentially lead to a more aggressive and unyielding stance towards Ukraine.
However, not all analysts share this view. Some argue that Russia’s involvement in Syria has already achieved its main objectives, such as strengthening its military presence in the region and demonstrating its willingness to support its allies. As such, the potential collapse of the Assad regime may not have a significant impact on Russia’s foreign policy towards Ukraine.
Moreover, others argue that Russia’s involvement in Syria has already put a strain on its economy and resources, making it unlikely for Putin to engage in further military ventures, especially in Ukraine.
Despite differing opinions, one thing is certain: the potential collapse of the Assad regime has the potential to significantly impact Russia’s foreign policy, particularly in regards to its approach towards Ukraine. How Putin will navigate this potential challenge remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the world will be watching closely.
